demography

Differential Privacy in the 2020 Census Will Distort COVID-19 Rates

Scholars rely on accurate population and mortality data to inform efforts regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with age-specific mortality rates of high importance because of the concentration of COVID-19 deaths at older ages. …

Inaction on Climate Change Projected to Reduce European Life Expectancy

Climate change-related excess mortality estimates clearly demonstrate a dramatic impact on public health and human mortality. However, life expectancy at birth is more easily communicated and understood by the public. By properly situating climate …

Evacuees and Migrants Exhibit Different Migration Systems After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

Research on the destinations of environmentally induced migrants has found simultaneous migration to both nearby and long-distance destinations, most likely caused by the comingling of evacuee and permanent migrant data. Using a unique data set of …

Population Pyramids Yield Accurate Estimates of Total Fertility Rates

The primary fertility index for a population, the total fertility rate (TFR), cannot be calculated for many areas and periods because it requires disaggregation of births by mother’s age. Here we discuss a flexible framework for estimating TFR using …

Bayesian estimation of total fertility from a population's age–sex structure

We investigate a modern statistical approach to a classic deterministic demographic estimation technique. When vital event registration is missing or inadequate, it is possible to approximate a population's total fertility rate (TFR) from information …

IRS county to county migration data, 1990–2010

The county-to-county migration data of the Internal Revenue Service’s (IRS) is an incredible resource for understanding migration in the United States. Produced annually since 1990 in conjunction with the US Census Bureau, the IRS migration data …

No landward movement: examining 80 years of population migration and shoreline change in Louisiana

Louisiana lost nearly 5,000 km2 of its coastal land area due to relative sea level rise (including local, regional, and global factors driving relative sea level change) since 1932, mirroring both the hazards associated with sea level rise and the …

Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway

Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020–2100 for all U.S. …

Social vulnerability projections improve sea-level rise risk assessments

Rising seas will impact millions of coastal residents in coming decades. The vulnerability of coastal populations exposed to inundation will be greater for some sub-populations due to differences in their socio-demographic characteristics. Many …

Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape

Many sea-level rise (SLR) assessments focus on populations presently inhabiting vulnerable coastal communities1,2,3, but to date no studies have attempted to model the destinations of these potentially displaced persons. With millions of potential …